A “win-win” economic settlement can end the Gulf conflict—here’s how
Gulf states and other regional players pool resources into a reconstruction and stabilization fund for Iran.
President Trump’s Saturday Call with Gulf and Regional Leaders on Iran Opens Door for a “Win-Win” Economic Settlement President Donald Trump will hold a call Saturday on the situation with Iran, with leaders from nations including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan joining.
This high-level regional coordination comes at a critical moment of heightened tensions, proxy attacks, and economic disruption in the Gulf. Rather than another cycle of escalation, the call presents a timely opportunity to pursue a pragmatic, economically driven settlement that delivers mutual benefits. A Practical Off-Ramp for All Sides. The core idea is straightforward: Gulf states and other regional players pool resources into a reconstruction and stabilization fund for Iran. In return, Iran commits to verifiable de-escalation measures that address the primary security concerns driving the conflict. Key pillars of such a deal:
Economic Rebuilding Support: Phased contributions from GCC sovereign wealth funds and oil revenues to repair Iranian infrastructure damaged in recent strikes and conflicts. This is framed as investment, not aid — helping restore Iranian ports, energy facilities, and refineries.
Security Guarantees: Iran agrees to halt nuclear weapons development with robust international and regional verification. It also ends advanced arms shipments and operational support to proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah.
Maritime and Trade Normalization: Full, unrestricted access through the Strait of Hormuz with no interference, tolls, or harassment of commercial shipping. Broader trade pacts that reduce barriers and encourage investment flows between Iran and its neighbors.
Mutual Non-Aggression Pact: All parties affirm each other’s core security and territorial integrity, creating a regional framework for stability.
This structure allows Iran to step back from confrontation without appearing to surrender directly to the United States, preserving regime face while delivering real economic relief to its people. Clear Wins for Every Participant
Iran: After years of sanctions, isolation, and war-related strain, the regime gains a pathway to economic stabilization. Resumed oil exports, Gulf investment, and reduced risk could ease domestic pressures on currency, unemployment, and living standards. It shifts Iran’s role from regional disruptor to integrated economic player.
Gulf States (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar): Protection for critical oil infrastructure, desalination plants, and shipping lanes. Rebuilding after attacks is costly; preventing future ones through economic incentives is far more sustainable. It supports their long-term diversification visions by lowering regional risk.
United States and President Trump: Achieves strategic goals — neutralized nuclear threat, curtailed proxy networks, and secure energy flows — with minimal prolonged U.S. military commitment. This aligns with a results-oriented approach: maximum pressure followed by smart deal-making. Trump can present it as a clear victory for stability and American interests, while thanking the American people for their patience and forbearing (with an eye on the midterms and lower gas prices)
Broader Region (Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan): Reduced spillover from proxy conflicts, more predictable trade routes, and opportunities for economic cooperation across the Middle East.
Why This Moment Matters: Saturday’s call brings together precisely the countries with the greatest stakes and leverage. Gulf states hold the financial resources. Iran needs economic breathing room. The inclusion of Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan broadens the diplomatic base and helps legitimize any emerging framework. Backchannel diplomacy — potentially supported by Oman or Qatar — could turn this conversation into concrete milestones.
Success would require phased implementation with monitoring mechanisms (IAEA enhancements, regional observers, satellite verification) and clear consequences for violations. A new Gulf-Middle East security forum could handle disputes going forward.
Challenges remain: deep mistrust, hardliners on all sides, and proxies that resist disbanding. Yet economic self-interest has repeatedly proven stronger than ideology in similar historical cases. The alternative — continued strikes, disrupted shipping, and volatile oil markets — harms everyone.
President Trump’s direct engagement with these leaders signals a preference for pragmatic outcomes over endless attrition. A regionally owned economic settlement that pairs Gulf capital with Iranian restraint offers the most viable path to ending the current cycle of conflict. It’s not idealism — it’s transactional realism tailored to the Middle East’s realities. If pursued seriously following today’s call, it could deliver lasting stability and prosperity for the region’s key players.