Under The Radar: Data Shows Big Shift In Voters Favorable Perception Of Trump
While a 2020 presidential rematch appears almost inevitable, a majority of voters express disapproval for either Biden (61%) or Trump (53%) running again, according to the latest HarrisX poll. This marks a significant shift from an August 2022 report where Biden had 60% Disapproval and Trump had 70%. Favorability statistics further indicate an increasing acceptance of Trump's potential return to the White House in November.
Trump’s Favorable rating began at Favorable 27.5. In a head-to-head comparison, Trump is gradually surpassing Biden's Favorability Ratings, a trend rarely observed before. Real Clear Politics reports the current spread:
Joe Biden Favorable 39.6 Unfavorable 55.2 -15.7
Donald Trump Favorable 41.6 Unfavorable 53.9 -12.3
For the near entirety of his term Biden has led in the favorability ratings but Trump as first tied then has been inching a head to a now two point lead and a 3.4 point differential between Favorable/Unfavorable
Concomitantly President Biden’s Approval rating stands at 39.4 % a dangerous low for a sitting president seeking reelection
Simultaneously, the generic congressional vote is trending towards Republicans (+1.4%), and Trump leads Biden by 3.8 points, landslide territory, in current head-to-head polling. This shift is remarkable, considering Trump lost the popular vote by 4.5 points in 2020.
In the key battleground states of Georgia Arizona Nevada and Michigan Trump has a three to five point lead currently
The polling figures for Biden were influenced by concerns about the economy, his handling of foreign policy, and his age. Voters personal economic perceptions remain stagnant, with 59% advising Trump would do a better job than Biden at 39%. Biden faces foreign policy challenges from various factions, on the left and right, and Biden's age and perceived cognitive decline persist as significant factors.
Contrastingly, Trump's image was tainted by the events of 1/6 and his confrontational demeanor. Over time, the impact of 1/6 has diminished, and Trump is perceived to have moderated his approach, despite ongoing court cases. Republicans view these legal challenges as attempts by the left to unfairly remove him, contributing to Trump's rise in primary polling and favorability.
With Trump's seeming inevitability as the Republican candidate and anticipated support from various quarters, negativity surrounding his potential return may further dissipate. The acceptance factor of his return to office is poised to become entrenched, shaping the dynamics of the upcoming presidential race.
If the betting odds, where people put actual money down, not TwitterX comments, can further be taken of an indication of Trump’s changing fortunes, his striking leap into a double-digit lead over Biden post the Iowa/New Hampshire results may be another reinforcement.
Links: HarrisX Messenger poll: https://drive.google.com/file/d/16dZWm_7keAUnD8QYF5VEqY9pz2RAOQE1/view
Voters perception of the economy and Trump’s ability to handle it better https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/20/the-great-disconnect-why-voters-feel-one-way-about-the-economy-but-act-differently/
Real Clear Politics Generic Vote, betting odds and Head-To-Head polling https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Favorability ratings https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/
TY: Sustained only by a lickspittle media. Without that they'd be doomed
I can't imagine how the Democrats can turn this around. They are in total disarray.