Subset of Blacks Vote Intention For Trump March 2024
Subset of Blacks Vote Intention For Trump March 2024
M. Joseph Sheppard
Having switched from a three-month aggregation of Blacks voting intentions subset of polls because some were outdated, to now monthly, the number of such polls will of course be less, and open to the criticism such lower numbers would not be correctly representational.
That is a fair comment of course. On the other hand, the March aggregate is almost the same as the previous quarterly number of 20.9% across 27 polls, so that may be viewed as a continuum.
The March numbers include extremes at both the high, Rasmussen 35% and low levels Daily Kos/Civiq’s 8%, which again could reflect the small number of polls available but the aggregation smooths these out most gratifyingly in my opinion.
If on election day Trump receives anywhere near these levels of support from Black voters it is hard to see how he would not sweep the core states of Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Seven Polls with a subset of Black voters intentions/support forTrump March 2024 Aggregate 19.1%
March 1st CBS 23%
https://www.scribd.com/document/710089283/cbsnews-20240303-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1
Economist You Gov 14% March 24-26
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_mTlzQOB.pdf
Daily Kos/Civiqs 8% 3/9-12 https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_monthly_banner_book_2024_03_8zn7pf.pdf
Rasmussen 35% March 3-7
ActiveVote 16% 3/22 https://www.activote.net/trump-vs-biden-march-2024/
Echelon Insights 16%
Quinnipiac 23% 3/21-25
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us03272024_regvoter_uyex26.pdf