“Welcome back to the Silly Season!” (Now a permanent motto.)
Also; WSJ (better to go fishing instead of punditing, but if my peers wish to pundit daily good for them) Six months to election day and things feel sort of fatalistic. There seems little to discover and nothing new to say about each of the candidates.”
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Much excitement in Maga Twitterland over a Muhlenberg College Pennsylvania poll “Trump 44% Biden 41% and “This pollster has never had Trump ahead in Pennsylvania”
But in the real world where I inhabit, and clearly so do you, a glance at the poll shows it is a three week old poll of only 417 Registered Voters and with a 6 point margin of error.
If a pollster is rubbish when they are against you, they are also rubbish when they are “for” you. So many of these university polls are trash-Quinnipiac being the prime example, and we await the next Franklin and Marshall “poll” for Pennsylvania which was Biden +10 in March, with much interest.
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Fox: ”Potential Trump VP pick goes on the offensive against Biden’s threat to Israel”
Burgum getting the MSM beat up, nothing happens in a vacuum of course, and he is being floated as the “Safe pair of hands” “Won’t put off and may actually attract indies” “Can bring in big money as very wealthy” etc. All true, and uninspiring, but does no harm which is a virtue.
(link cut and paste if top link does not connect)
And (links) Politico Doug Burgum Is Having a Moment. Seriously”
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Indiana GOP primary: Haley 22%. Not a good look and fodder for the haters. I can’t understand what whatever percentage of actual Republican primary voters who voted for her had to gain apart from some sort of personal feel-good moment. Sad and pathetic.
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Speaking of back to the real world:
Maryland senate race poll: Hogan 11 points behind, he was 13 points ahead and led in all previous polls:
Versus Trump; Biden 65/32 in 2020 now 56/35 and 50/33 in the five way. The same pattern repeats across safe blue states e.g. NY MA and CA where Biden drops around 10 points from 2020 but Trump stays more or less the same, or up a point or two. This would of course be meaningless if it was the same in November for the Electoral College, but might lower Biden’s popular vote in total, and even a small bleeding in the 7 key states would be bad for him.
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North Carolina-it takes at least a five point Trump lead in a five-way race for Robinson to be tied for governor, I’ve seen a two point Trump lead poll with Robinson 8 points behind. GOP primary voters continue their seemingly endless run of making the worst possible choices.
NORTH CAROLINA GE:
Cygnal: Trump 43% Biden 38% RFK Jr 9% — Governor: Robinson 39% Stein 39% Ross 4%
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