American Thinker version at: https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/01/poll_analysis_a_surge_in_black_voter_support_for_trump.html
Two prominent psephologists cautioned that some high polling results for Donald Trump among Black voters were "quirky," given the smaller sample sizes in individual polls, and emphasized the importance of aggregating such polls, ten as a minimum, for a more accurate assessment.
Finding no such research available I undertook what is, I believe, the first such analysis of the cumulative data from 18 current polls with a subset of Black voters, which revealed a striking, if not historical shift in Black voting preferences toward the Republican Party, and particularly to Donald Trump.
Collated were notable polls from reputable sources, were included in the Real Clear Politics and 538 aggregates, such as Suffolk, Siena/NYT, BigData, Fox, I&ITIPP, CBS, Emerson, and Rasmussen.
The aggregate of all 18 polls showed that 23.2% of Black voters intend to vote for Donald Trump, with many individual polls showing Trump polling above 20%.
The Trump preference range of individual polls varied from Blacks Yahoo News at 7% to HarrisX at 38%, demonstrating the importance of aggregation for a more comprehensive understanding.
Even if on election day it drifts back, I very much doubt it would drift back to the 12% Trump received in 2020. Even say, 16% + stay at homes in the right cities would be a huge game changer.
Pollsters, some somewhat bewilderingly, struggle with their own results. The highly respected I&I/TIPP poll found Blacks Trump 23% (up 4 from previous) "Concern for Democrats is Trump now holds a shocking 23% of the black vote, more than doubling his support from that key voting bloc since the last election. Add weakening support among Asian voters, Biden could be in big trouble”.
Based on these historic polling numbers, aggregated for the first time, you can expect a combination of Blacks: 3rd/4th party/stay at homes and direct switch to Trump equal to a minimum of a direct 15% or plus vote for him.
GenForward, which is a Black/Hispanic specific Pollster, has it at Trump 17% which number could be decisive. Karl Rove noted further from GenForward the possibility of Black voters choosing third-party options, (Cornel West if he gets on ballots)or abstaining from voting, indicating a potential shift away from traditional Democratic support "Black voters might choose a third party option or-one else” in a Nov. 30 GenForward survey—or not vote, an inclination that was 10% higher among blacks than whites in the same poll. Suffolk similarly “[Trump] has closed the deficit because third-party voters come off of Biden’s support among Blacks.”
Real Clear Politics suggests the potential for Trump to double his 2020 total, with a growing percentage of Black adults indicating they may not vote at all.
AJK “Black intention to stay at home in Georgia 10%
https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-poll-trump-leads-biden-in-pivotal-georgia/3MVR7TBMC5EDNEULPE5FA6GZXE/
I&I/TIPP poll found Trump's Black support at 23%, around double since the last election, with concerns raised about Democrats' diminishing support among key voter demographics.
The potential electoral Impact is clear. The concentration of Black voters in pivotal states urban areas like Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Detroit switching to Trump by 17% could significantly impact the election outcome. These polls are Biden/Trump head to head, the inclusion of Cornel West if he gets on the ballot is a further challenge to Biden.
The political MSM is now starting to recognize or can’t hide any longer, that the Dems have a problem. Mainstream media outlets are beginning to acknowledge the shifting landscape, as with Vox “Dems have moved from ridiculing the notion that Blacks/Hispanics are shifting to the GOP, to now openly acknowledging it and struggling for a coherent response”
NYTimes Edsall describes the situation as "grim," highlighting higher approval ratings for Trump among the Democratic base of Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ+ community, Gen Z, millennials, unmarried, and college women. This is well understood by the Democratic leaders “James Clyburn Is 'Very Concerned' About the Black Vote for Biden, the Democrats Have a Huge Problem” so concerned about Biden's dwindling support among Black voters, prompting efforts to shore up their backing by sending him into Black areas. Biden Tries to Rally Disaffected Black Voters in Fiery Condemnation of Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/08/us/politics/biden-campaign-south-carolina.html
The historic shift in Black voting preferences, as indicated by aggregated polling data, suggests a potential paradigm shift with far-reaching consequences for the Democratic Party. High-profile Black voices, combined with these polling numbers, indicate a notable trend that, if confirmed at the ballot box, could reshape the political landscape. The upcoming election may witness a significant increase in Black support for Trump, with potential repercussions for Democratic electoral strategies.
In looking further at Black voting choices, in the small sample of Biden versus Haley or DeSantis polls in most cases the preference for either is near Trump's. This is positive for the GOP as it indicates the shift is not entirely Trump specific (although Trump driven)
This has not come out of the blue. I noted indications of shifts among Black men in 2016 and 2020. Change usually does not come in a rush unless massive forces like the Great Depression which shifted Black vote near en-masse from GOP to Dem. But the McCain 4% to Trump 12% and now polling at 21% shows which way the wind is blowing, and if confirmed at the ballot box a new paradigm will be in place.
Biden’s approval rating is 21 points below average among Black people and 15 points below average among Hispanic people, compared with 6 points among white people; more Black people, in particular, offer no opinion. There’s a striking difference among Black people by age in their views of Biden: He has an approval rating of 65 percent among Black people age 50 and up, dropping sharply to 32 percent among Black people younger than 50. Age gaps are not apparent among white or Hispanic people.
ABC Langer https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1231a2IntotheElection-.pdf
417/18 polls. Aggregate 23.2%
Noble Insights 10 https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/thecentersquare.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/6/00/60011e64-b003-11ee-8cec-9fc5911fb060/659f133201e53.pdf.pdf
ActiVote 34 https://www.activote.net/trump-vs-biden-poll-jan-2024/
Siena/NYT 17 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html
Ras 38
Yahoo 7 https://www.scribd.com/document/693647369/20231218-Politics-Tabs
CBS 19 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-fares-best-against-biden-2024-presidential-election-poll/
Econ/YouGov 15 https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_wOkNqe4.pdf
HarrisX 38 N/A
McLaughlin 26 https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/National-December-Presentation-RELEASE-12-19-23.pdf
GenForward 17 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/12/poll-a-fifth-of-black-voters-want-someone-else-instead-of-trump-or-biden-00131185